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The popularity of gluten free foods is set to taper off within the next two or three years, claimed Dr. Elizabeth Sloan, president of Sloan Trends, at the recent Research Chefs Association conference in Texas.
Celiac disease, an autoimmune disorder triggered by gluten – the protein in wheat, barley, rye and spelt – is estimated to affect about one in every 133 Americans, and the only treatment currently available is complete gluten avoidance.
But a market boom in recent years for gluten free foods is thought to have been driven by a number of other factors, including the families of those with celiac disease also eating gluten free foods as they have become more palatable, non-celiac consumers finding abdominal symptoms are eased when they eliminate gluten from their diets, and others who perceive gluten free foods to be generally healthier or less calorific (often erroneously).
Despite this wide base of consumer interest, Sloan thinks the market is about to slow down.
“This gluten free trend does not have long term legs,” she said. “And the reason for this is twofold.”
Citing Hartman Group research, Sloan said that only 22% of consumers buying gluten free products are buying them intentionally because they are gluten free.
“It doesn’t mean it is the reason why they are buying it,” she said.
Secondly, she said that the gluten free market is far larger than warranted by the proportion of Americans who require gluten free foods. Market research organization Packaged Facts has found that the market for gluten free products has grown faster than expected, and valued the market at $2.64bn in 2010 – a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% from 2006 to 2010.
“It is a very good and very strong market, but right now it’s still out of proportion,” she said. “It may continue to grow for the next two or three years, but in the long term, you really need to think about that.”
Sloan is just the latest food industry trend-watcher to express doubt about the potential longevity of the gluten free market.
Two years ago, trends expert Suzy Badaracco, president of Culinary Tides, said that the gluten free market was poised to fall like “a house of cards”.
For food manufacturers looking for the next big dietary trend to back, Sloan advises that the rise of plant-based diets may be a safer bet.
“You need to keep an eye on vegetarian and plant-based diets,” she said. “About 25% of households use meat substitutes at least occasionally and it has never been that high before.”
11 comments (Comments are now closed)
Mis-Leading
In order to comment, suggest, predict or even influence future trend of certain foods, or dismissal of some, a thorough research and understanding of the condition is needed.
As one suffering from the condition, which fortunately, was discovered by a GP in my doctors' surgery two years ago, I vouch for all other possible undiscovered cases with condition that has many faces.
In my case, a gluten intolerance followed diet brought unbelievable positive results after 10 days of following the food regime. As, that is what it is.
I can not understand Dr Elizabeth Sloan's understanding of this autoimmune condition that can affect a sufferer in more that 300 ways, basically any organ in the body. In my instance, from complete unexplained tiredness, brain fog, balance problems, memory issues, muscle weakness, bloating and massive water retention, and many more, which are LIFE LONG, and NOT a passing diet fad to lose weight. It is a health problem.
If gluten free diet regime is not followed completely and gluten avoided completely, the results are obvious.
I believe that many more serious conditions are result of undiscovered gluten issue.
A first study author Luis Rodrigoin, MD, from the Gastroenterology Service Hospital Universitario Central de Asturias, in Oviedo, Spain, suggests a prevalence of celiac disease among MS patients that is 5 to 10 times higher compared with the general population all over the world(which is between 1% and 2%).
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Posted by Suzana Sterland
22 June 2012 | 13h55
Totally off base
Good advice listed below about monitoring keyword searches and social conversation. I went gluten free over two years ago but wish I had known its affects over 25 years ago which would have saved me a lot of suffering. Gluten free is healthier and more and more people are suffering from it because of increase in whole wheat additives, increased gluten proteins in our wheats, processed foods with fillers and just plain wear down of our digestive tracks! Do a tiny bit of research and you would realize this trends is going to continue full steam ahead. I couldn't disagree with this piece more. Find out for yourself!
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Posted by SPB
16 May 2012 | 20h46
A prediction firm that doesn't Tweet?
I will post a video later today on Gluten-sensitive.com about this article. Over a year ago the Wall Street Journal published an article about the 17-18 million people (1 in 20) that possible have gluten sensitivities. That means this prediction firm had over a year to discover articles like that so that they don't publish articles like this that narrowly focus on Celiac's Disease and the 3 million people with. 17-18 million people + 3 million, is over 20 million. Just want to note too the I monitor keyword search closely and this time last year the term gluten-free was searched 800,000 times on Google alone. Now we're at 2,200,000+. 300% growth. Maybe this prediction firm should open a Twitter account and use the discover feature.
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Posted by vince black
26 April 2012 | 20h49
Celiac Disease and Non-Celiac Gluten Sensitivity are on the rise
More people are being required to maintain a gluten-free diet as time goes on. While the growth may level out at some point, it will not go away.
According to celiac expert Dr. Joseph Murray of Mayo Clinic, celiac disease is 4 times more common than in 1950
http://www.mayoclinic.org/news2009-rst/5329.html
In another study it's been shown that the incidence of celiac disease in the U.S. since 1974 has doubled every 15 years.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20868314
This only accounts for those with celiac disease - 1% of the population. Those with Non-Celiac Gluten Sensitivity are estimated to be anywhere from 6% - 30% of the population. This equates to about 18 million people.
http://www.umm.edu/news/releases/gluten-sensitivity-celiac-disease.htm
Gluten is a toxic substance to humans. We don't have the enzymes to break it down properly. Everyone one is gluten sensitive to a certain degree.
I invite people to read Dr. Rodney Ford's "Gluten is bad for us all".
http://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/gluten-bad-us-all
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Posted by Al Klapperich
25 April 2012 | 14h55
Trends can change but some foods stay the same
"Gluten free 'does not have long term legs', says trend expert "
So potatoes, fruits, vegetables, meats, milk, rice, whole grains, etc are no longer going to be available after 2-3 years go by? Yeah right!
Naturally gluten free foods will never go away they are staple foods for most people. And with doctors testing for Celiac more as a first possiblity instead of a last resort there will be more who will need the gluten free foods there by increasing the demand for those products. Wouldn't be something if Dr. Sloan was one of them? I've heard of it happening to others who made similar remarks.
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Posted by Marleena
14 April 2012 | 06h39
so wasn't Suzy Baldaracco wrong?
For the past 5 years the "experts" have been saying GF is a fad and going away, is going to collapse, has no staying power. They are wrong, because they misunderstand it. It won't continue to grow at the same rate simply because of the law of large numbers, but there the statistics cited by Ms Sloan show a fundamental misunderstanding of the market. Where is the article pointing out how many of these experts have been wrong on this trend?
Allergies in general are trending up, as are sensitivities. This market may cool somewhat, but it is here to stay and will not collapse, at least until some wonderdrug makes allergies irrelevant. Other reasons to believe this category will continue to grow: increase in food quality, gradually decreasing prices, cross utilizing consumers (that is a strength, not a weakness), big company interest is growing, and I think we are not far from seeing a beginning of larger investment that will further accelerate these trends. I continue to believe this category will outperform the market for the next few years, and even when it slows (like natural, like organic, etc) it will remain a vital and valuable market segment.
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Posted by Jeff Grogg
14 April 2012 | 05h46
GLUTEN FREE NOT BY CHOICE
I ate bread when I was young, I ate pasta and lots of other non-gluten free foods as a young child. I was a premie and they fed me to fatten me up. I di not choose to develop a gluten intolerance it was handed to me on an operating platter after my second surgery to remove a 10 plus cm tumor from my stomach, to have me sick as a dog for 18 months till I had to have another surgery to have my stomach completely removed and my insides redirected. Don't get me wrong, I love bread but I rather not eat bread then be sick as a dog for days after eating a piece of bread.
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Posted by nora fraser
14 April 2012 | 05h05
Critical thinking and TRENDING GF expert DISAGREES
This is publicity piece to prevent new business from launching into it so BIG BOY put fear into potential threantening and competing for new brands. This market not a fad will grow in other areas thinking outside the box.
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Posted by GF JOE
13 April 2012 | 23h10
Lots of 'gluten free' foods are gluten free by chance
I always wonder how gluten free' foods are categorized in these contexts. For example, Progresso labels a lot of their soups 'gluten free' - but they didn't go out seeking to make gluten free soup. They just realized that their chicken & rice soup was already gluten free, and began pointing that out. Are foods like that counted in this 'consumers are buying lots of gluten free foods' trend? Or does this only focus on gluten free replacement foods - such as breads, crackers, cookies, etc. I've got tons of stuff at my house that is labeled 'gluten free' - but only a small fraction of these things are actual replacement items for something I can't eat anymore. Most of it is stuff like peanut butter or grits that are usually gluten free anyway, and always were. It's just that the manufacture points it out now.
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Posted by Kate
13 April 2012 | 21h41
Gluten free is NOT a DIET, it's a LIFESTYLE.
Thanks Abe. I live in a household of Celiac's including my wife and daughters and I can tell you I am thankful each day that this has expanded so much in the past 5 years. I can remeber a time when Gluten free looked and tasted like cardboard and wasn't even a disease. The fact is that - it is a disease, not a diet. The current misconception that a gluten free diet is healthy for you is once again an uneducated public and overreactive media.
Even though there has been a huge jump in diagnosing Cleiacs there are still a number of doctor's that don't even know what it is. I do believe that more people will be diagnosed and food allergies will continue to grow in the near future and wheat will be one of them.
I agree that the analysis is weak. The reasons that the market will decline are more related to these types of reports than a shrinking base of consumers. As the gluten free trendies fall off the wagon and as advocacy groups continue to educate the public on the true reason for the diet, not to lose weight and be healthy. This will then drive down excitement, lead companies to scale back because trend reports will say it has lost it's market and the almost 30 million Americans will be out of luck. Declines will come more from the hype than a decrease in need or want from Celiac's who will contiue to grow in numbers.
At least for these who suffer from this illness the choices have grown, the prices have dropped dramatically and the products have improved greatly.
Thank you General Mills for making gluten a focus and recognizing the needs of a large consumer base and making the market follow you down a path that has benefitted many and created lots of gluten free smiles!
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Posted by Dabanks4u
13 April 2012 | 21h03
weak analysis
The reasons this study attributes to consumers choice to try a gluten free diet does not reach far enough. It also does not qualify the 1 in 133 density of celiac sufferers.
Gluten free diet research is well funded and testing for celiacs is better than ever. We may get to 1 in 100 sufferers in 2 years and also find that many inflammation disorders benefit from gluten free foods. Both would drive the market. Even if we just take current conditions and data, the growth of parents buying for children with food sensitivities is growing even faster than the data in this study. Also, the food qulaity in packaged goods has improved, especially in loaf bread, so the market is encouraged further.
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Posted by Abe
13 April 2012 | 18h02
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