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Soft drinks sales strong despite obesity concerns

By Anthony Fletcher, 31-Jan-2006

Canadean predicts that carbonates, the leading global soft drinks category, will have grown by around 2 per cent in 2005 despite bad press and pessimistic reports.

The market analyst said that consumers around the world will have guzzled a massive 194 billion litres last year, the equivalent of 30 litres per drinker, even though the sector has come under intense criticism on both sides of the Atlantic.

But while the debate about sugar content has certainly impacted on sales in the more affluent regions of the world, developing regions are continuing to drive demand.

Eastern Europe leads the way with a 7 per cent surge in demand for carbonated soft drinks between 2004 and 2005, while Asia, Central & South America, the Middle East & North Africa and the Rest of Africa all clocked up growth of 3 or 4 per cent.

In contrast, North America saw sales slip by 1 per cent as did Australasia, and West European sales could only edge forward marginally.

This is not altogether surprising. Food and drink producers have come under increasing pressure in Europe and the US amid concerns over rising obesity rates, and soft drinks have increasingly been targeted.

France recently banned all vending machines from schools last September in an attempt to tackle the problem of childhood obesity, while England and Scotland have also pledged to get junk food, including fizzy sodas, out of schools.

The British Medical Association, representing about three quarters of UK doctors, said that if current trends continue, at least one fifth of boys and one third of girls in Britain will be obese by 2020.

Carbonated drinks manufacturers have of course responded to growing consumer fears with the launch of numerous low calorie alternatives. The level of low calorie penetration in the developed world reflects the changing lifestyle of consumers, reaching 30 per cent in the key North American market, and 18 per cent in the number two volume region, West Europe.

In North America, the emergence of sucralose as a third intense sweetener alongside aspartame and acesulfame k has been a factor in the rising popularity of diet drinks. Canadean says that improvement in the taste of low calorie products will be critical in determining the future prospects for the category, particularly in diet sensitive segments of the global village.

In addition, interest in 'diet' drinks is generally related to the economic well-being of a region, and areas like Asia and the Middle East & North Africa register a low calorie share of just two or three per cent of sales.

Consumption of diet drinks in these regions can be traced to more prosperous pockets of society. Demand is however rising and there is certainly evidence that young women in China are becoming increasing calorie conscious.

However, the success of 'diet' variants in North America and Western Europe will not be enough to prevent the loss of consumers to other fast developing categories like packaged water and still drinks. As a result, these regions are seeing their share of total sales gradually eroded.

Between them North America and West Europe still account for 44 per cent of all volume, but in 1999 these territories had been responsible for nearly half of all carbonates sales, a figure that is now expected to fall to 42 per cent by the end of 2008.

Global operators will increasingly look to invest in the developing world to drive up future carbonated soft drink sales, a policy that is yielding results.

The Canadean 2005 Global Carbonates Report analyses the market by region, segment, pack mix, distribution channel, pricing and leading companies and includes forecasts. 79 country profiles are also included.