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Soy prices rise on lower stock estimates

By Lindsey Partos, 03-Oct-2005

Estimates that US soybean stocks could be as much as one million tonnes lower than expected propelled a price spike on the futures market last Friday, and could herald bullish prices for food makers next year.

The US department of agriculture estimates soybean stocks could reach 6.97 million tonnes, up 127 per cent from a year ago, but much lower than the 7.97 million tonne pre-report estimate.

"Being considerably lower than previous figures, the USDA estimates surprised the markets with futures rising sharply and a relatively large movement for one day ," Josh Dadd, an economist at the Home Grown Cereals Authority tells FoodNavigator.com.

At $211 a tonne, and $573.25 a bushel, soybeans were up $4.50 a tonne when the Chicago Board of Trade closed on Friday.

The full impact of the US harvest on prices of edible oils for food processors and makers will not be clear until November; when the harvest has reached completion and the market has a clearer idea about supplies.

A domino effect, prices for soy oil - a key price benchmark for the edible oils market - also rose on Friday.

"In Europe, rapeseed oil could rise as a result of the lift in soy oil prices," says Dadd.

Food manufacturers' demand for vegetable oils, such as palm and soybean, is growing as the health-conscious consumer turns away from animal fa