2012-2017 predictions: Which retail channels will gain and lose market share?
Assuming that food inflation will average around 3% over the next five years, Willard Bishop estimates that traditional supermarkets sales will not keep pace, and will continue to lose market share as consumers choose to shop other formats for their grocery needs.
What's going up? It predicts that the dollar market share for...
- Fresh format stores (Whole Foods, The Fresh Market, independents etc) will increase from 1.1% in 2012 to 2.1% in 2017
- Limited assortment stores (Aldi, Trader Joe's and Save-A-Lot etc) will increase from 2.7% to 3.4%
- Convenience stores with gas to increase from 12.7% to 13.8%
- Supercenters (Super Target, Kroger Marketplace etc) to increase from 17.3% to 18.2%
- Dollar stores (Family General, Dollar Tree, Dollar General etc) to increase from 2.4% to 3.1%
- Wholesale club stores (Costco, Sam's Club) to increase from 8.7% to 9%
What's going down? It predicts that the dollar market share for...
- Mass merchandise stores (Walmart, Kmart, Target etc) will decrease from 4.4% in 2012 to 2.7% in 2017
- Convenience stores without gas will decrease from 2.2% to 2.1%
- Traditional supermarkets will decrease from 39.8% to 36.5%
Meanwhile, it predicts pretty flat growth growth in market share for Super warehouse stores, drug stores and military stores.
