US poultry exports forecast down in wake of bird flu outbreaks

The Economic Research Service’s Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook (March 2015), written based on projections from the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates report, said the broiler shipments for January 2015 were down 12.4% to 529.3 million (m) lb.

The Russian ban has had some impact, and although less of a market for exports than in previous years, on a year-to-date basis to July 2014, exports of US broiler meat to Russia amounted to 7.1% of total exports.

New bans imposed following a number of bird flu outbreaks this year have also had an effect on exports, particularly as the bans from China and South Korea pertained to the whole country rather than specific regions. In 2014 exports from those two countries combined made up 5.5% of total broiler exports.

Broiler meat production for 2015 is estimated at 40bn lb – an increase of 75m from the previous estimate (+4% on 2014). Production in January was up 3% on last year, due to an increase in the number of birds slaughtered and average live weights, but 1% lower than in 2013.

Turkey meat production is forecast to reach 6.1bn – up 6% on last year, with the majority of the growth predicted to take place in the first half of the year. The increase has been put down to a number of factors, including lower feed costs and relatively strong prices for beef and poultry.

Turkey exports were up in January to 51.9m lb (+2.4%) compared to the previous year, but exports for the year are forecast to fall to 765m lb (-4.9%), for much the same reasons as the downgrading of broiler export expectations.

Beef:​

South-western USA has seen continuing drought, but winter rainfall has kept feeder cattle on Southern Plains wheat pasture, and is likely to do so until mid-March, before they head to the feedlots, said the report.

According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Livestock Slaughter report, published last month, heifer slaughter numbers were down in January, with commercial cow slaughter appearing to consist largely of dairy cows. Commercial beef cow slaughter was down 24%, indicating efforts to build beef-cow herd numbers.

Beef production in the first half of the year could be close to first-half 2014 levels, said the report. However, the retail price of beef rose to record highs in January, which could leave it at a disadvantage compared to other proteins when it comes to seasonal purchases.

While cattle imports were down in January (-13.9%) compared to last year, beef imports were up a whopping 63.7%, predominantly due to increased shipments from Australia (+123.7%) and New Zealand (+38.2%). "Demand for imported processing beef expanded significantly due to lower domestic supplies of lean beef,"​ said the report. Meanwhile exports were down on last year​ (-19.3%).

Pork:​

Pork exports were also down (-21.4%) due to the well-documented issues at West Coast ports, limiting supplies to Asia. In light of this, the USDA has lowered its first-quarter pork export forecast to 1.1bn lb. Imports of pork were up in January (+32%), due to the benefit of a strong dollar on the cost of foreign goods, with the USDA revising its import figure for 2015 to 1bn lb – slightly below levels seen last year – with imports in the first quarter expected to be 25% up on last year.

The USDA has also increased first-quarter 2015 pork production estimates by 30m lb, to reflect the larger-than-expected February hog slaughter and heavier average dressed weights. First-quarter commercial pork production is set to reach 6.2bn lb – up 7% on last year.