US beef and poultry production set to slump

According to the report, lower beef and turkey production “will likely” ​offset higher broiler and pork production. 

The report revealed that dairy cow slaughter year-on-year has increased, due to lower milk prices and milk-price forecasts. 

But this has not been able to offset the overall reduced beef cow slaughter in the US, which has been caused by low cow inventories and improved pasture conditions, due to strong rainfall. 

Fed cattle slaughter has been lower, partially due to narrow beef packer margins and what it describes as “the tug of war between narrow to negative beef packer margins and negative cattle-feeding margins”.​ 

Pork​ 

Pork production has been higher and prices have been under pressure as litter size and overall hog inventories have rebounded, the report claimed. 

However, it said that hog and pork prices for the remainder of 2015 were expected to reflect larger hog inventories and expanding pork production levels. 

Prices of live hogs (51-52% lean) are expected to average between $53-$55 per cwt for the third quarter, $45-$49 per cwt in the fourth quarter, and $50-$51 per cwt for the year. 

Poultry​ 

Turkey production was down sharply in May and is forecast to remain below the previous year through to the first quarter of 2016. 

The production has been lower due to impacts from the US outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza. 

Broiler, turkey, and egg shipments in May were down from a year ago. Broiler shipments totalled 577million lb in May 2015, a decrease of 9% from a year earlier. 

Turkey shipments decreased 35% from a year ago, totalling 39m lb, while egg product exports totalled 26m dozen in May 2015, a 16% decrease from the previous May. 

Broiler production continues to expand and the forecasts for the second quarter through to fourth quarter of 2015 and the 2016 forecast were all revised upwards.