Top Trumps: 5 ways incoming president Donald Trump will shake food & drink

‘Tariff Man’ Donald Trump already promised big import taxes of up to 20% for countries selling goods to the States. China, however, could see a tariff of 60%, the new president said when setting out plans to the electorate to “make America great again”. Two months have passed since Republican Trump won the 2024 election. So what will the USA’s new leader do to food and drink during his second stint in the White House? Trump means what he says when it comes to tariffs, multiple experts globally have warned. He will “certainly seek to deploy tariffs”, said leading international trade expert Shanker Sangham after Trump’s victory. The EU exported €1.5bn more agri-food to the States in the first half of 2024 , reaching €20.8bn for the period. For the UK, this was 4% increase for the same period £1.1bn. So what Trump says and does matters in billions. The US is the EU’s biggest trade partner, but Trump hates international trade deals. That means any agreements in place would need to be renegotiated or cancelled, if America’s interests don’t come first. If the tariffs do come, which many believe is a possibility, then they could be as much as 20%. Smaller trading partners, such as Brexit Britain, could “fly under the radar”, according to senior trade adviser to Pagefield and former trade official to the UK government , John Alty. The UK’s position outside the EU could be beneficial as it’s not the largest market importing into the States. “On one side, the UK has a very balanced trade with the US, but the EU has a very big export surplus,” said Alty. To that extent, the UK is maybe not top of his list, but he did say tariffs across the board, so one must take that reasonably seriously." Though Europe could quell Trump by buying more from the States, such as oil and gas, which he told the bloc in December to buy more of or “it’s tariffs all the way”, he threatened. With tariffs, as in the past, usually comes inflation for the States, according to the Consumer Brands Association. “Tariffs are paid by US consumers and by US manufacturers,” the organisation has stated . Recent Bankrate forecasts have warned tariffs could lead to higher prices. Less than a third (32%) of total US imports are subject to tariffs. Trumps tariffs could add up to a 40 basis point increase on inflation, claimed Olu Sonola, head of economic research at Fitch Ratings. If you can’t beat them, join them. Many of Europe’s food and drink businesses have been eyeing land in the States in recent years, particularly in bakery where financial growth is best supported through bricks and mortar in the territory. “There’s a lot of interest from European bakeries in going to North America” because there’s a gap in the market for their product, which American bakers can’t replicate, Garyth Stone, MD in investment bank Houlihan Lokey’s consumer group said last summer. European private or own-label manufacturers have also picked up the keys to US manufacturing sites in recent months and years, with anticipation of more growth. The rationale behind moving facilities to the States was firstly logistics – there’s less distance to travel if products are manufactured in the country. Now, however, setting up businesses, providing jobs to Americans and paying taxes to the state falls into Trump’s dream. On Trump’s election victory, many food and drink trade bodies in the States urged the incoming administration to work collaboratively with the sector and increase funding to further food and drink science and technology. “Congress must take swift action to pass a new, inclusive farm bill that addresses the evolving needs of US agriculture,” said the International Fresh Produce Association. There is an urgent need for more science-based regulations, increased funding for food, agriculture and nutritional research, as well as food science expertise on critical forums, said the Institute of Food Technologists.

Top Trumps: 5 ways incoming president Donald Trump will shake food & drink

New United States president Donald Trump is returning to office with, if taken seriously, a host of promises that could not only impact Europe’s, but the world’s food and drink industries.

Related Topics