Donald Trump campaigned for presidency on promises of mass deportations and stopping illegal immigration. The president has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as early as February 2025 and has declared a national emergency at the southern border to ‘immediately and entirely’ stamp out illicit border crossings.
But where does that leave the one million over undocumented farmworkers that work in US agriculture?
In dairy alone, immigrants make up around half of labor, and the majority of farms (responsible for almost 80% of US milk production) employ immigrants, according to research by the National Milk Producers Federation.
The same research estimates that eliminating immigrant labor would reduce the US dairy herd by 2.1 million cows and milk production by almost 50 billion pounds, shrinking the number of dairy farms by 7,000. This, in turn, would hike milk prices by 90.4%.
Americans’ attitudes towards undocumented workers are complicated, as the Pew Research Center found. About two thirds (64%) of US adults think undocumented immigrants should have a way to stay in the country legally, but 35% do not – and the gap between the two groups has narrowed in recent years.
Having a job and being able to pass a security background check are the two major factors that Americans think should be required for undocumented immigrants to stay. As for those in favor of deportations, there are three main reasons: not wanting to reward people who have broken the law; the perceived unfairness to migrants who enter legally; and concerns about taking away resources from American citizens.
Migration has also plummeted throughout 2024 after peaking in December 2023, according to US Customs and Border Protection data cited by the Pew Research Center; falling from 249,741 encounters with migrants crossing the US-Mexico border to 58,038 in August 2024. The change has largely been attributed to improved enforcement from Mexico and the US’ asylum ban on migrants caught crossing the border illegally.
Is the time right, then, for the US dairy industry to re-open the debate on undocumented workers with legislators?
US dairy’s workforce in numbers
According to official US labor stats, there were 105,376 workers across 6,930 dairy farms in 2022. Eight years prior, there were in excess of 150,000 workers, with more than 50% estimated to be immigrants.
Research indicates that US dairy workers are mainly Hispanic immigrants from Mexico and Guatemala; of around 34.4 years of age on average; with limited English proficiency, and elementary or middle school education.
Wages in the sector can vary, too. A study of workers in the Texas panhandle and Southern Plains revealed that the vast majority (80%) made less than $40,000 per year, working 60 hours a week on average (see ‘sources’ below for more information). In a 2014 national survey, meanwhile, farmworkers reported being paid an average of $11.54 per hour (around $33,200 per year on a 60-hour week).
More recently, federal labor stats reveal that workers earned around $850 per week on average in 2022, higher than the average pay of $522 per week for crop production workers during the same year.
How much does it cost to hire foreign farm labor?
How did US dairy become so dependent on foreign labor? “When countries become richer, their workforces transition out of agriculture work and go into the services sector, manufacturing and services,” said Zach Rutledge, a Michigan State University ag economist who is carrying out research into US agriculture labor trends and challenges. “The US went through that process in the 1900s and were pretty much out of hired agricultural work almost entirely.”
But foreign labor is expensive to get – Rutledge estimates that domestic workers with employment taxes may cost between $15 and $25 an hour, whereas temporary workers brought in via the H-2A visa program may cost almost twice as much, $25 to $30 an hour. That cost may be higher when one factors in housing and other expenses, he added.
In his USDA NIFA-funded research, Rutledge will examine how the decline in US-based workers has impacted the number of workers farms hire through the H-2A program, and if the program can serve as a viable substitute for labor shortages in the US-based workforce.
He will also investigate how the H-2A program’s Adverse Effect Wage Rate - the minimum wage paid to H-2A workers - impacts the wage rates of domestic farmworkers.
The goal of this project is to provide impartial data highlighting how potential policy decisions shape both sides of the labor market. The entire project is funded through 2028.
The road ahead: From H-2A access to a register for undocumented workers
A key challenge to hiring lies in access to the H-2A program, which is limited to temporary or seasonal agricultural work. Dairy meanwhile requires year-round employment, though producers use the visa system to bring in staff during calving, for example.
The National Milk Producers Federation’s executive vice-president for policy & strategy Jaime Castaneda told us the dairy industry has for years lobbied to improve access to the H-2A program.
“We have written to the Department of Labor a number of different times and actually even pointed to the fact that the sheep herding industry [has] access to H-2A, and it’s a very similar industry to dairy. I wouldn’t say that there’s a good reason for the Department of Labor to not allow dairy to use it.
“We have made it clear that H-2A should include dairy and that there are different ways in which we can include year-round operations – for example, in which you can have the same worker for several years; then they have to go back home for a period of time, and return to do the work again.”
Under this system, dairy producers could rotate their employees, thus securing a consistent labor access, he said. “Basically, those people would go back and forth from their home country because they are in a legal system,” he added.
“We have made it clear that H-2A should include dairy and that there are different ways in which we can include year-round operations.”
Jaime Castaneda, NMPF
As for dairy’s undocumented workforce, legislation would be essential to provide clarity regarding these workers’ status. But the matter has proved a minefield for lobbyists over the years, Castaneda told us.
“There have been a number of different pieces of legislation - the latest one being the Farm Workforce Modernization Act of 2023. That was passed by the House twice but the Senate never picked it up.”
The proposed legislation – available in full here - creates provisions to allow undocumented workers employed in US agriculture to apply for proof – so-called CAW status - that they had been in the country and working in the sector for at least two years.
“At the end of the day, we need legislation. That’s the only way to ensure everybody’s going to be safe and content, and that we have a proper legal system.
“I think Congress understands that we have individuals have been in this country for a long time working in agriculture, that are incredibly important for feeding America.
“Politics have just found their way to prevent us from actually having this legislation passed by both the House and the Senate and being signed by the president.”
This may not immediately change now, either – but Castaneda suggested the US administration’s focus on strengthening border control must come first.
“We need to take care of the border; without that, nobody’s going to ever talk about anything else.”
Jaime Castaneda, NMPF
“Once the border is taken care of, we need to step back and realize that we have an issue. We have a number of people that are not going anywhere…and we need to address that in a way that actually makes sense.
“We have the legislation that ensures these people all register. [And] we need to put [in place] a system in which people can come to the US and do the work that Americans don’t want to do.”
Sources:
Rodriguez A, Lopez SN, Douphrate DI. On-Farm Health Screening Needs of Immigrant Dairy Workers in the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. J Agromedicine. 2023;28(4):665-675. doi:10.1080/1059924x.2023.2200418
