Most tariffs that wiped out $10 trillion in global equity value - the equivalent of 10% of global GDP - have been paused for 90 days by US president Donald Trump.
But the latest announcement is unlikely to sweeten US dairy exporters, whose three major export markets remain impacted by tariff increases.
Tariffs on imports from Mexico (25%), Canada (25%) and China (125%) are still in force, and the escalating trade war with Beijing is a particular cause for concern for US dairy at a time when exports have started to come under pressure.
The Milk Producers Council reports that during February, US exporters shipped 463 million lb of product, a decline of 4.3% in the same month last year after adjusting for the leap day.
China is the third biggest export market for US dairy, with 385,485 metric tons of goods worth $584m exported in 2024; a growth of 29% in 10 years, according to USDA data.
China’s 84% tariff on US goods – were upped from 34% last week –came in force Thursday, April 10. A spokesperson for the National Milk Producers’ Federation told us the tariffs are ‘certainly going to be a hit to our exports to China’, but the trade body continues to evaluate the cost of tariffs to US exports.
China’s additional tariff rate is imposed on all imported goods originating from the US; though goods that have been shipped before 12:01 on April 10, 2025 and imported between 12:01 on April 10, 2025 and 24:00 on May 13, 2025 will not be subject to the additional duties.
“The US’s practice of escalating tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake, which seriously infringes on China’s legitimate rights and interests, seriously damages the rules-based multilateral trading system, and seriously impacts the stability of the global economic order. It is a typical example of unilateralism, protectionism, and economic bullying,” Beijing said in a statement.
Year over year in February, US dairy exports to China increased in value terms by 4% according to US Census Bureau Trade Data.
In February 2025, exports of cheese (+649% / $72,081 in total dollar sales in Feb 2025), casein and caseinates (+593% / $1.2m) and milk and cream with more than 10% fat (+405% / $57,724) rose sharply year over year.
The biggest declines were in casein glues (slipping by 92% in value terms, from $92,250 in total value in Feb 2024 to $7,012 for Feb 2025); butter (-71%) and fluid dairy (-50%).
For Canada, counter-tariffs remain a key part of its strategy. The country began to impose a 25% tariff on vehicle imports from the US (retaliating against a similar measure), with prime minister Mark Carney in favor of counter tariffs ‘that have maximum impact there and minimum impact here’.
Dairy goods from the US are subject to 25% tariff effective March 4, including butter, milk and cream, yogurt, and whey.
Dairy trade has long been a point of contention in the US-Canada relations - and Canada’s protectionist policies at home, coupled with upcoming general elections, further complicates potential trade negotiations over dairy.
US dairy exports to Canada rose 29% in value terms in February 2025 YoY, with lactose (+454%), casein (+380%) and NFDM with more than 1.5% fat (+225%) driving growth.
Meanwhile, shipments of yogurt (-67% in value terms), malted milk (-61%) and milk and cream with more than 10% fat (-27%) slid in value terms.
Mexico has remained coy about applying retaliatory tariffs on the US despite threatening to do so several times in recent weeks.
In early April, president Claudia Sheinbaum welcomed that Mexico was not on the US list of across-the-board tariffs last week. In that sense, Mexico’s approach has so far limited the escalation of the trade conflict, much to the relief of US cheese exporters.
US dairy exports to Mexico rose 8% in value terms in February, with shipments of milk and cream with more than 10% fat rising sharply in dollar terms (from $9,540 in Feb 2024 to $1.26m in Feb 2025). Milk fat exports also rose markedly YoY in February (from $ 23,199 in Feb 2024 to more than $4.6m in Feb 2025).
But with more than half of US dairy exports shipped to Mexico, Canada and China – and potential retaliation from partners still on the cards – president Trump’s tariff pause is unlikely to bring relief to US dairy exporters in the short term.
