Key takeaways:
- Climate change is already threatening global potato crops, putting the future of potato chips at risk.
- Leading snack makers are investing in climate-resilient farming and supply chain fixes, but progress is uneven.
- Shoppers may soon face higher prices, product shortages or reformulated snacks as the crisis deepens.
It’s a cruel irony: the very snacks we reach for in uncertain times could soon be victims of uncertainty themselves. Snack time might not feel like a climate casualty. But it’s heading that way.
And this isn’t a distant worry. Scientists predict global potato yields could plummet by up to 16% by 2035 if temperatures keep rising. That has far-reaching consequences – not just for profits, but for farms, jobs and the supply chains behind the world’s most popular snack. From Lay’s in New York to Calbee in Tokyo, no brand is insulated.
Japan’s biggest snack producer has issued a red alert. Climate change is threatening the very foundation of its business, warned Calbee CEO Makoto Ehara. “Climate change is now a direct threat to our ability to produce snacks,” he told CNBC recently. A dramatic warning, yes, but one that should rattle the entire industry.
The threat isn’t abstract. It’s about potatoes – one of the world’s most essential crops – now faltering under extreme heat, erratic rainfall and disrupted supply chains. If Calbee’s struggling to keep chips on shelves, other snack brands aren’t far behind.
The company depends on potatoes grown in Hokkaido – once prized for its cool, stable climate. But as Ehara points out, those ideal conditions are disappearing. It’s getting too hot. Harvests are down. Quality is slipping. And what was once a dependable supply is now anything but.
The risks are far from hypothetical. Calbee has lived through a crisis like this before. Back in 2017, after a series of record-breaking typhoons devastated the Hokkaido potato harvest, the company was forced to temporarily suspend the sale of around a dozen chip varieties.
Social media lit up with images of empty shelves and price-gouged bags of Calbee’s pizza-flavored chips selling for up to ¥1,250 (over $11) at the time. Now, the situation is once again precarious: Japan is grappling with extreme heat, with even cool-weather Hokkaido logging record highs near 39°C (102.2°F). Climate volatility isn’t just repeating history – it’s escalating it.
In the CNBC interview, Ehara confirmed the scale of the threat: 90% of the company’s potatoes are sourced domestically and hotter temperatures are already compromising those crops. To adapt, Calbee is breeding heat-tolerant varieties and sourcing more from abroad. But there’s no quick fix. Imports from the US, which currently account for around 10% of Calbee’s potato supply, are proving expensive due to a weak yen and shifting trade dynamics. In fact, despite facing lower rates than had been threatened by Trump back in April, the 15% tariff could compel the snack giant to raise prices in key export markets and accelerate local manufacturing abroad.
In Japan, Calbee has already been forced to halt chip production due to typhoons, droughts and a faltering domestic harvest. In 2021, even imported potatoes from the US couldn’t save the day – port delays, floods and container shortages wreaked havoc. The Tokyo-headquartered snack giant, worth over $2.5 billion, is now frantically diversifying: working on breeding heat-resistant potato varieties with other organizations; expanding its domestic farming network; and slashing dependence on US imports. It’s even exploring European suppliers as a contingency.
A global crop under pressure
This scramble for spuds should alarm every snack exec. And it’s not just Japan. In late 2023, heavy rains flooded fields across Europe, leaving tonnes of potatoes rotting in the ground. Back in 2021, a brutal heatwave in the US Pacific Northwest scorched entire harvests. In Belgium, prices shot up 158% by the end of last year. No matter where you look, the climate is taking its toll - and it’s changing what ends up in your bag of chips.
PepsiCo knows it. As one of the biggest buyers of potatoes on the planet, it’s already integrating climate resilience into its supply chain. That includes regenerative farming initiatives on millions of acres, investments in water efficiency and sustainable fertiliser strategies. McCain Foods – the world’s largest producer of frozen fries – is sounding similar alarms. It now plans for a crop failure every two years in key growing regions, calling climate change an existential threat.
And yet, not all players are moving fast enough. Climate risk isn’t just another ESG bullet point. It’s a raw material risk, a pricing risk, a reputation risk. In an industry built on predictability and price margins, even small disruptions ripple through global production lines.
Are snack makers doing enough?
Climate adaptation is no longer optional, but are snack companies actually making the changes needed?
Some are. Take PepsiCo India. It’s testing new ways to make chips using less water and energy – a move aimed at easing pressure on strained resources. In the US, researchers are working on hardier potato varieties, tweaking their genetics to boost drought resistance and even add antioxidants. These kinds of behind-the-scenes efforts could help steady supply chains as the climate grows more unpredictable.
McCain Foods is also planning ahead. The company now assumes a major crop failure every other year in key regions – and is restructuring its operations accordingly. It’s not just risk management anymore; it’s survival strategy. PepsiCo globally has rolled out regenerative agriculture initiatives across more than 3 million acres, aiming to cut water use, build soil health and reduce reliance on synthetic fertilisers.
Lamb Weston, one of the biggest frozen potato processors in the US, is turning to smart tech – rolling out precision agriculture and advanced irrigation systems to make every drop of water and nutrient count.
Nestlé is also pushing for long-term change. It’s committed to sourcing half of its key ingredients from regenerative farms by 2030, including the potatoes that go into staples like Maggi and its prepared meals range.
Simplot, a major supplier to fast food giants, is partnering with growers on drought-tolerant potato varieties and farming methods that cut down on resource waste. And Snack Brands, one of Australia’s top chip makers, has started trialling locally adapted potato strains and is investing in water reuse at its manufacturing sites.
Meanwhile, the FoodNavigator Climate Smart Food broadcast series offers real-world insight for food and beverage manufacturers looking to build climate resilience – from smart farming strategies to resilient sourcing and low-impact processing – underscoring that industry-wide learning is underway even if action still lags.
Not everyone’s moving at the same pace though. Some companies are still treating climate risk as a distant ESG box to tick – not the clear and present operational threat it’s already become.
There’s progress, yes. But the big question remains: is it happening fast enough to keep up with a climate that’s changing in real time?
Cultural comfort, climate reality
The climate crisis isn’t just about rising sea levels and polar bears – it’s about harvests, trade routes, freight costs, storage and affordability. It’s about whether your Friday night crisps or Saturday fries make it from field to fryer to table.
It’s easy to scoff at the idea of climate change threatening something as seemingly trivial as snacks. But food culture is culture. And when a product as basic and beloved as potato chips starts feeling the effects of climate instability, it should make us all pause. Because if potatoes aren’t safe, what is?
That’s why Calbee’s honesty is so valuable. Ehara didn’t sugarcoat the problem. He didn’t wrap it in vague language about sustainability. He said it flat out: climate change could jeopardize the company’s ability to make its signature products. That level of corporate candour is rare. And it should be applauded and emulated.
So where does that leave us? Hopefully, on the brink of a real shift – one where climate risk isn’t buried in fine print but tackled head-on in boardrooms, on farms and on factory floors. One where innovation and investment go hand in hand. One where the snack aisle remains full not by luck, but by resilience.
Because if the past few years have taught us anything, it’s that nature doesn’t care about your quarterly forecast. And in a world where climate volatility is the new normal, the companies that survive won’t be the ones with the flashiest marketing or the cheapest chips – they’ll be the ones who understood the stakes and adapted early.
The climate has changed. Now it’s time the snack industry did too.
What consumers can expect next
As climate change hits potato production, consumers may soon see the fallout on their shelves. Here’s what might be coming:
Higher prices: As harvests shrink and imported spuds get pricier, chip prices could start creeping up, especially in countries that rely on foreign supply.
More shortages: Typhoons, droughts and freak weather events could lead to empty shelves – again.
New ingredients: To ease pressure on potatoes, expect to see more chips made from corn, lentils or blended bases.
Shifted sourcing: Brands may start highlighting ‘locally grown’ or ‘climate-resilient’ ingredients as a badge of honor.
More transparency: As supply chains come under strain, expect companies to talk more openly about the climate risks they’re facing and how they’re responding.