While traditional ice cream is declining, the ice cream and frozen novelties category is growing, with better-for-you, customizable and nostalgic options on the rise, according to industry insiders.
Google and TikTok searches for traditional ice cream are down 22.3% YoY, which suggests “a saturation point or changing dietary and flavor preferences,” says Alyssa Williams of Spate, the New York-based data research firm. Searches for gelato and shaved ice are also seeing declines.
But lighter alternatives are on the up and up in Google and TikTok searches, including: Italian ice, sorbet, mango ice cream, frozen yogurt and lower calorie ice cream, according to Spate. Ice cream sundaes and popsicles are a growing area for consumers rooted in nostalgia and customization for indulgence, snackability and fun, according to Williams.
“Consumers are a mixed bag,” writes Kelsey Girard, Mintel senior analyst, in an executive summary for the Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties 2025 report. Girard adds that intentionality and adventure are “becoming a greater piece of the puzzle.”
According to the report, 55% of frozen treat consumers choose a flavor based on what they crave in the moment, with 6% saying they stick to the same flavors every time. Looking at young adult consumers, 41% of Gen Z pick frozen treat flavors based on the season.
Love for old-fashioned flavors
In many ways, the ice cream category is still a traditional one.
According to the International Dairy Foods Association, the majority of US ice cream and frozen food manufacturers have been in business at least 50 years. Many are still family-owned businesses and market on a local and regional level.
Consumers top 10 favorite ice cream flavors are vanilla, chocolate, strawberry, butter pecan, cookie dough, cookies and cream, mint chocolate chip, chocolate chip, rocky road and peanut butter/PB cup, according to a 2024 survey of Americans by IDFA and Morning Consult. While these are traditional flavors, IDFA encourages flavor innovation through competitions. This year, the winners were Lavender Lemon Butter Cookie by Kent Precision Foods Group, Brownie Batter Cookie Dough by Hudsonville Ice Cream, and Dubai Bar Bliss by IRCA Group.
What’s ahead?
Mintel predicts 2026-2027 will be a volatile period for ice cream and frozen treats.
Supply chain challenges, potential tariff impacts and even climate change all affect ingredients. Consumer confidence has dropped with economic uncertainty.
In the coming year or two, Mintel predicts familiarity will make for a comforting constant, but non-necessities will be seen as less appealing. Manufacturers will want to deliver solutions that “meet specific needs by way of flavor and format,” per Mintel.
In 2028-2029, generational preferences will keep on shifting. The most committed traditional ice cream consumers, Baby Boomers, stood out for their desire for miniaturized versions of frozen treats they already love. Meanwhile, Gen Z is more likely to partake when some aspect of the product feels novel or elevated.
