Key takeaways:
- The Trump administration’s new dietary guidelines mark a tougher stance on sugar and ultra-processed foods (UPFs), unsettling major packaged food companies whose portfolios are heavily built around those categories.
- While no immediate regulations were announced, the guidelines’ influence over federal food programs like school meals and SNAP raises the risk of longer-term demand shifts for core packaged food products.
- The baking industry is pushing back early, arguing that staple grain foods remain affordable, nutritious and essential to the US food system as policy discussions move forward.
Dietary guidelines rarely move markets. They’re updated every five years, debated by nutrition experts and generally absorbed without much fuss by the food industry. For most companies, they shape public messaging rather than day-to-day business decisions.
That pattern broke this week. When the Trump administration released its 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines, shares in several major packaged food companies fell, even as the broader market stayed relatively steady. Those that felt it most were the CPG majors most closely associated with sugar-heavy, refined and ultra-processed foods.
The reaction wasn’t driven by a single recommendation, but by how the document reads as a whole. Added sugar is no longer treated as something to manage carefully. Highly processed foods are called out directly. Protein, fats and whole foods are elevated in ways that quietly downgrade many familiar packaged categories.
At a White House briefing, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. framed the reset as a break from decades of federal nutrition policy, accusing previous administrations of prioritizing corporate interests over public health. No new regulations were announced, but the language marked a clear shift from the more cautious phrasing the industry has grown used to.
What’s in the new US dietary guidelines?
The Trump administration’s 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans represent the most forceful shift in federal nutrition advice in decades, both in tone and emphasis.
At the core of the new guidance is a push toward protein-forward, whole-food diets, with Americans encouraged to include high-quality protein at every meal. Animal-based proteins such as eggs, poultry, seafood and red meat are explicitly endorsed alongside plant-based sources including beans, lentils, nuts and seeds.
The guidelines take an unusually hard line on added sugar, stating that no amount is recommended as part of a healthy diet. For adults, added sugar should be avoided where possible and capped at no more than 10 grams per meal. For young children, the guidance calls for eliminating added sugars entirely.
For the first time, the guidelines explicitly address highly processed foods, advising Americans to avoid packaged, ready-to-eat or prepared foods that are high in sugar or salt. Sugar-sweetened beverages, including soda, fruit drinks and energy drinks, are singled out for reduction.
The document also reframes dietary fats, promoting fats from whole-food sources such as meats, eggs, full-fat dairy, olives, avocados, nuts and seeds. Olive oil is recommended for cooking, while butter and beef tallow are listed as acceptable options – a departure from earlier guidance that favored vegetable and seed oils.
Whole grains remain part of recommended dietary patterns, but the guidance urges consumers to prioritize fiber-rich whole grains and significantly reduce refined carbohydrates such as white bread, packaged breakfast foods, crackers and flour tortillas.
The guidelines underpin US federal nutrition programs, including school meals and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and will inform future procurement standards and regulatory decisions as USDA and HHS move into the implementation phase.
When nutrition guidance starts to affect business planning
Shares of Mondelez International, General Mills, Kraft Heinz and Conagra Brands all traded lower following the announcement. Beverage groups PepsiCo and Coca-Cola also slipped. Kraft Heinz briefly touched a fresh 52-week low, underlining how sensitive long-established packaged food portfolios are to shifts in federal nutrition policy.
For manufacturers, the significance lies less in the guidance itself than in where it applies. The Dietary Guidelines underpin federal nutrition programs that reach nearly one in four Americans, including school meals and SNAP, which provides food benefits to more than 40 million low-income households. Any move by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to align procurement standards with the new framework could begin to redirect demand away from some of the most profitable, shelf-stable categories in the US food system.
That prospect, rather than any immediate regulatory action, is what’s concentrating minds in boardrooms.
UPFs edge closer to policy enforcement
Ultra-processed foods have been a fixture of academic research and advocacy debates for years. What’s changed is their position inside federal policymaking. The FDA and USDA are now working toward a consistent, government-wide definition of ultra-processed foods, a step that would make it far easier to introduce labeling rules, marketing restrictions or procurement limits in future.
Several states have already secured SNAP waivers restricting purchases of sugary drinks and confectionery. Taken together, those moves point to a gradual shift away from voluntary reform toward more prescriptive tools, even if timelines remain unclear.
For large companies, the risk isn’t that packaged foods disappear from American diets. It’s that public institutions, health agencies and regulators begin favoring certain formulations over others at scale. That has implications for reformulation costs, ingredient sourcing and long-term portfolio mix.
The pressure isn’t limited to branded manufacturers. Ingredient suppliers and agricultural processors have also come under scrutiny, as policy attention shifts from individual nutrients to the degree of processing itself.
Bakers push back
Bakers push back
The baking industry has moved quickly to respond to how grain-based foods are framed in the new Dietary Guidelines. The American Bakers Association (ABA) said it recognizes the significant influence the guidelines have on nutrition policy, public health and federal food programs that serve nearly one in four Americans.
“The Dietary Guidelines play a critical role in shaping nutrition policy and federal food programs across the country,” an ABA spokesperson said. “That’s why it’s important they continue to reflect the full body of evidence around the role of grains in a balanced diet.”
ABA welcomed the decision by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to continue including grains as part of recommended dietary patterns and pointed to the baking industry’s efforts to remove certified FD&C colors from products. “We were pleased to see USDA and HHS recognize both the essential role grains play in healthy diets and the baking industry’s commitment to product improvement,” the spokesperson said.
However, ABA raised concerns about the way some staple grain foods were characterized. “We were disappointed to see certain baked goods cited as examples of highly processed, refined carbohydrates,” the spokesperson said. “That framing does not fully reflect the affordability, accessibility and nutritional contribution of these staple foods for communities nationwide.” ABA said it would continue engaging with USDA, HHS and policymakers as implementation discussions progress.
It also aligned itself with the administration’s focus on improving access to nutritious food, while emphasizing the importance of a resilient domestic food system. “Commercial bakers are proud partners to American agriculture, sourcing around 85% of their core ingredients from US farmers,” the spokesperson said. “That connection helps ensure families across the country can rely on baked goods that are nutritious, accessible and affordable.”
As federal agencies begin assessing how the guidelines translate into procurement standards and program rules, ABA said it intends to remain closely involved in the next phase of the policy process.
