New USDA data analysis suggests snack sales remain resilient – for now – despite industry concern that surging adoption of GLP-1 drugs for weight loss would slim their consumption along with consumers’ waistlines.
Since GLP-1 drugs were approved for obesity in 2021, prescriptions among adults rose from 0.5% to just over 2% by 2024, according to FAIR Health data analyzed by the USDA Office of the Chief Economist.
The data, which does not include figures from 2025 or consumers who are taking GLP-1 drugs without a prescription, does not show the full extent of the medication’s popularity for weight management. Other sources estimate use is substantially higher. For example, a large RAND survey estimates that about 12 of US adults have used GLP-1 weight-loss drugs at some point and a study from Truveta Research estimates nearly 2.2 million patients were prescribed GLP-1 drugs between January 2019 and December 2025.
The uptick triggered significant handwringing among food and beverage industry stakeholders that the appetite suppression effect of the drugs would dramatically dampen grocery sales.
And it did. But whether the decline is lasting is up for debate.
According to a study by Cornell University and Numerator published in late December, households with a GLP-1 users cut their grocery spending on average by 5.3%. That rose to 8% among higher-income households.
The research also shows that “the magnitude of the reduction becomes smaller over time.”
Analysis by EY-Parthenon published a year ago portended this impact. It estimated diet changes linked to GLP-1 drug use could reach upwards of $12 billion snack sales lost over the next decade.
And yet, USDA data analysis shared Feb. 19 at the agency Agriculture Outlook Forum, show snack units holding steady at slightly more than 10 billion per year in 2024, which is about the same as 2020. The data suggests there was a small blip up in late 2022, but the trajectory is stable compared to the percent of adult patients with GLP-1 prescriptions.
“I was surprised to see that when we think about the long-term trend towards GLP-1s’ potential for less food consumption overall – we don’t see that being born out in the data, just yet,” said USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez.
“My theory here was that we would look and we would see some net change in food consumption, but … surprisingly to me, at least, the number of units sold has remained roughly the same,” he explained.
The data does not reflect changes in price to make snacks more accessible, if demand is declining, and it doesn’t account for other varieties of food, he added.
What impact are snack makers and retailers tracking from GLP-1s?
The analysis aligns with reports from major snack manufacturers and grocery retailers, which attribute only a minimal impact on grocery sales since GLP-1s were approved for weight management.
In 2023, Walmart reported that customers who picked up a GLP-1 prescription at its pharmacies were buying only “slightly less calories” than shoppers with similar behaviors but who did not fill prescriptions for the weight loss drugs at its stores.
Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey said during the company’s fourth quarter earnings call that GLP-1 use is not a significant headwind for the overall beverage business at this time – but he did callout a shift in consumption.
“We track not just what they do on non-alcoholic beverages, but across what they eat and the alcoholic beverages. One can see the full change in the diet makeup,” Quincey said at the time. He explained: “As it relates to non-alcoholic, you know, clearly, we can see some very emerging conclusions. They tend to drink less full sugar soft drinks, but they tend to drink more diet soft drinks, also hydration, more coffee and … a big shift towards protein drinks. I think that’s a pretty standard set of conclusions that everyone’s seeing."
This shift is creating opportunities for snacks tailored to meet GLP-1 users’ unique needs – such as for more fiber, protein, nutrient-density and hydration.
For example, Simply Good Foods, which makes Atkins-branded products, said during the company’s first quarter earnings call in January that the uptick in GLP-1 users is a growth opportunity.
CEO Geoff Tanner explained that the company recently concluded a pilot clinical study that found GLP-1 users consuming Atkins products had positive muscle mass retention, digestive comfort and improved metabolic markers that are important to consumers with diabetes.
“GLP-1 drugs are clearly a game changer for many people in how they lose weight, and we’re excited in the coming months to share more information about our research into how Atkins’ nutritional approach can help these consumers achieve their goals,” he said.
GLP-1 users also might be turning to snacks, even traditional options, as mini-meals instead of eating full courses. This could help explain why snack sales are holding steady.
Snacks may not be secure longterm
While the use of GLP-1s has not negatively impacted sales yet – it still could, cautions Benavidez.
He noted: “I will be interested to revisit this question a year from now, two years from now, and see if that picture has changed. But these are certainly patterns that we want to observe when thinking about overall food demand and demand for US products.”
