As big chains dominate full-basket trips and specialty stores thrive on short, mission-driven visits, CPG brands must adapt with dual strategies and channel-specific innovation to win across both formats.
Not every grocery trip is the same for consumers. Shopping excursions are rising even as trip types fragment and shoppers increasingly split baskets across formats, according to a recent Placer.ai report “5 Grocery Growth Drivers in 2026.”
Visits under 15 minutes now account for over 40% of grocery visits nationwide, up from 37.9% in 2022 – underscoring that short, mission-focused trips are boosting traffic growth alongside traditional larger shopping trips.
This new dynamic presents a clear, but nuanced, growth landscape for CPG brands. Large chains continue to capture a disproportionate share of sustained, full-basket trips, while smaller banners and specialty grocers are carving out mission-specific traffic gains, according to Placer.ai.
Scale still matters – but so do shopping trips
The biggest grocery chains continue to dominate traffic, per Placer.ai. The 15 most-visited chains accounted for roughly half of all grocery visits as early as 2022, and they’ve maintained – and in some cases expanded – that share by investing in assortment, private label and competitive pricing.
In practical terms, large chains are winning because they can do two things at once: handle the big weekly stock-up trip and meet shoppers’ growing expectations around variety, value and convenience.
That reality changes what brands need to bring to the table. In this environment, companies must “operate dual strategies rather than applying one approach universally,” said Brandon Warren, chief growth officer at The Barcode Group, a retail advisory firm that works with CPG brands.
For large chains, that means scale and reliability matter, Warren explained. Products that move in high volume, stay in stock and compete with private label tend to perform best, he added.
Smaller grocers are winning short, purpose-driven trips
While large chains dominate total visits, there’s still room for smaller players to grow, according to Placer.ai. Specialty and independent grocers aren’t trying to win the entire weekly list. Instead, they’re gaining traction by focusing on shorter, more specific trips.
As Placer.ai notes, “smaller grocers can grow by competing for more short visits” and by owning particular shopping needs that become part of a customer’s routine.
From a retailer perspective, the difference is clear, according to Colin Houchins, director of sales at Tosca, a global supply chain company that provides reusable plastic packaging and pooling solutions for grocery retailers and CPG brands.
Large chains “need CPG partners that can support national promotions, consistent supply,” while independent grocers find “value in differentiation; exclusive SKUs, local sourcing, flexible pack sizes,” Houchins said.
In other words, smaller stores compete by offering something distinct.
That advantage shows up most clearly in fresh and premium categories. Houchins points to perimeter and discovery-driven categories like organic produce, plant-based items and craft snacks. These products “enhance the shopping experience” and tend to perform well on frequent, shorter trips, Houchins added.
What shorter trips really signal
The rise in quick visits isn’t random. Rather much of grocery growth is coming from low- and middle-income households making more frequent trips across multiple retailers to manage higher food costs, according to Placer.ai.
Instead of one large weekly shopping trip, many consumers are spreading purchases across formats where they’re shopping for value at big chains and turning to smaller stores for specific needs.
For brands, that means growth isn’t just about getting into the biggest chains. It’s about understanding why shoppers walk into each store in the first place.
From national chains to local stores: What CPG brands should do to capture consumers’ attention
To recap, brands need to think in practical terms:
- In large chains, support broad distribution and promotions that help win the full weekly shop
- In specialty and independent stores, focus on products that stand out – whether that’s local sourcing, premium positioning or unique flavors
- Consider packaging and assortment choices that fit shorter trips, especially in fresh and premium categories
Grocery traffic isn’t moving in one direction. Large chains are capturing stock-up visits, while smaller stores are growing through repeat, purpose-driven trips. Brands that recognize those different roles, and adjust accordingly, will be better positioned to grow.
