Natural and organic food & drink poised to hit $427 billion by 2029

The natural and organic food and beverage industry has become a force to be reckoned with and continues to shape the CPG landscape, according to industry leaders at Natural Products Expo West in early March.

The health benefits in food as medicine are a key category growth driver, with 75% of shoppers purchasing a natural and organic product in the last six months, according to Ashley Roehm, president of Acosta Sales.

“What’s really interesting is that 57% of them said that the reason they bought the product is because of the health benefits associated with the product,” she said.

That statistic jumps to around 90% for Gen Z and Millennial shoppers, Roehm said.

Despite massive growth in the industry, challenges remain for CPG companies and natural and organic grocery retailers.

Natural and organic challenges

Despite the growing enthusiasm for natural and organic products, many consumers remain confused about what the organic certification represents and natural means.

“Forty percent of folks told us they’re still really not sure what it means to be natural and organic,” according to Roehm.

Meanwhile, inflation-weary consumers are still reluctant to spend more on better-for-you products. Nearly three-quarters (72%) of shoppers avoid natural and organic products because of price or affordability, she said.

“But we don’t think it’s a pricing challenge. We believe that it’s a communication opportunity,” she said. “It’s a value articulation opportunity, which makes it critically important that we as retailers and manufacturers ensure consistency and clarity of message on that value proposition across touch points in the shopper journey from the label to the physical shelf, the digital shelf and our retail media messaging.”

The Organic Trade Association is tackling this challenge with its recently launched The Seal Makes It Simple campaign to educate consumers about what USDA Organic Certified represents, including that products are non-GMO and made without antibiotics or growth hormones.

The long game for organic

The industry’s origin stretches back to the early 20th century and was later spurred by the growth of retailers like Whole Foods Market, which launched in the late 1970s, according to Bill Giebler, content and insights director at New Hope Network.

“It took us until 2008 to be a $100 billion industry, and just nine years later, we were a $200 billion industry, and then just four years later, a $300 billion industry. Now we’re a $342 billion industry. But alongside this tremendous growth, we’ve also seen increased complexity,” Giebler said.

The industry is projected to reach $427 billion by 2029, and that is only the food and beverage part of the equation, he said, adding that household products and pet food are also growing rapidly in the natural and organic industry.

Room to grow in organic

Data shows that consumers facing financial headwinds are focused on natural and organic foods, and that creates opportunities for the industry, according to Kathryn Peters, head of industry relations at Spins.

“They’re looking at stock-up trips. They’re looking for where their dollar can do more. They’re engaging highly in private label. They’re really focused on price comparing. But again, they’re still shopping with their values, so there’s never been a more important time or bigger opportunity for us to be sure we meet them where they want to be,” she said.

Giebler noted that 39% of consumers are looking to cut back on organic and premium, but the remaining 61% are not, despite economic challenges.

Despite those challenges, 63% of all CPG growth in 2025 came from natural products, according to Peters.

“We know that there is demand growing in the market, and the conscious consumer has unmet needs. ... This is what Expo West has always been about – tens of thousands of us gather to find ways to close this innovation gap to move our food systems forward and to meet the needs of this conscious consumer,” she said.