Building a healthier food system while balancing the challenges of an increasingly volatile world demands greater cooperation between up- and downstream stakeholders.
From the increase of climate shocks in agriculture to the rising popularity of GLP-1 drugs, collaboration across the food chain is more important than ever, according to a panel of industry leaders at Future Food-Tech San Francisco.
In the panel “Future-Proofing the Food Chain: Strategies for Resilient, Healthy Supply” led by Jack Bobo, executive director of UCLA’s Rothman Family Institute for Food Studies, food-system risk and resilience experts unpacked some of the biggest challenges the industry faces and how to address them head on.
Aging population’s threat to farming
Global population growth, or lack thereof, is among the biggest challenges facing the food system, according to Prakash Jhanwer, managing director and CEO of Spices at OFI, a global supplier of cocoa, coffee, dairy, nuts and spices.
Jhanwer warned that world population is projected to peak in the next 15 to 20 years, a shift that could have significant ramifications for the food system. This is leading to an aging population where the supply chain is led by aging farmers, he said.
Ted McKinney, CEO of the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture (NASDA) and former Under Secretary of Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs at US Department of Agriculture, noted that the average US farmer is 57 years old, and the average age in Europe is 58.
“With personal experience on our own farms in Indiana with my twin brother, it’s difficult to get people who want to chase that way of life,” McKinney said.
Climate shock and the threat of efficiency
Climate change poses the most obvious threat to the food system, but one of the biggest challenges comes in the form of consolidation, according to Jhanwer.
While consolidation seems logical for efficiency, the concentration of global commodity production concurrently creates vulnerabilities, he explained.
Climate shocks in the form of flooding and drought pose an increasing risk to commodities produced in a handful of regions across the globe, he said, noting that 80% of the world’s corn is grown in the United States, for example.
“That exposes us to more climate shocks,” he said. “We talk about biodiversity, but I think there are opportunities in geographical diversity.”
While such a geographical diversity might not make for the most price-efficient crops, it builds a “cushion against future climate shocks,” Jhanwer explained.
The challenge of climate change also extends to the farmers working in the field, according to Roy Steiner, SVP of Food for the Rockefeller Foundation.
“We’re going to have to get a lot smarter about how we help human beings work in those environments,” he said, explaining that the mortality rate for farmers increases as temperatures rise.
Small changes, big solutions
As organizations optimize for efficiency, they also must address resiliency in the food system, according to Bobo.
A greater focus on data, particularly using artificial intelligence, could be key to providing solutions, according to Jessica Synkoski, vice president of sustainability and CSR at Sodexo, a multinational firm that provides food services and integrated facilities management.
“That’s going to really help with that resilience issue, because we can spot those hotspots well in advance, so we need to focus more resources on pulling together that data across the supply chain,” she said.
Public sector’s role
Steiner agreed that taking a big-picture look at decision-making within the food supply is critical to reforming the system. “Micro-rationality can lead to macro-irrationality,” he said.
This is where the public sector can play a role, according to Steiner. For example, school meal programs often require administrators to accept the lowest bid on contracts.
“That means if Chinese apples are one cent cheaper than New York State apples, the New York school system has to buy Chinese apples, which actually makes no sense if you look at the overall system, because the benefit of local economics is going to be the thing that really should be driving the overall cost benefit,” he said.
The public sector also can play a role in food-as-medicine programs, and how doctors approach better health outcomes for patients, Steiner added.
“We’re funding a whole range of randomized trials to enable doctors to prescribe fruit and vegetable diets, and the health insurance companies pay for the food, and it turns out they save money because, who knew, food is cheaper than pharmaceuticals,” Steiner said.
Such an approach has to be made intentionally, though, according to Steiner. “You have to create policies to make that happen,” he said.
More research needed
The rise in GLP-1 drugs might appear to pose a threat to stakeholders across the food system, but Steiner believes it creates opportunities for the industry to focus on quality.
“When you have fewer bites, you’re going to pay a lot more attention to what you put in your mouth,” he said.
Steiner noted that the cost of diabetes management in the US has reached about $327 million annually, which is money that could be used to build a stronger food system.
Better understanding of the molecular composition of the food supply requires more research, Steiner added, explaining that the Rockefeller Foundation has launched a Periodic Table of Food initiative to address the topic.
“When you start measuring the full molecular composition of food, it starts mattering how you’re growing that food because regeneratively grown almonds look very different molecularly than conventionally grown almonds,” he said. “Organic chicken actually has a different profile than conventionally grown chicken.”
