Big-box retailers are reshaping the grocery landscape, with Walmart dominating even as rivals Target, Costco and Dollar General deepen their hold on physical retail traffic, according to analytics firm Placer.ai.
The recent report, Physical Retail in 2026: How the Giants are Winning, reveals that these four chains increasingly lead the retail landscape, acting as the “bellwethers of consumer behavior, revealing where Americans are spending, how often they shop and what drives their decisions.”
“Understanding their visitation patterns sheds light on the key dynamics shaping both their performance and the broader blueprint for retail success in 2026,” according to Placer.ai.
Despite retail giants’ advantages of size, consumer awareness and economies of scale, opportunities remain for CPG and smaller retail competitors, according to the report.
Navigating retail giants
The top four retailers collectively grew their share of visitors to the physical store market – increasing from 16.8% to 17.5% from 2019 to 2026 year to date – making direct competition more difficult.
Their smaller competitors can gain brick-and-mortar shoppers with focused shopping trips, including fill-in, convenience and discovery trips, according to the report.
Consolidation could be bad news for CPG companies, however, due to a heightened channel concentration “increasing those retailers’ negotiating leverage,” the report noted.
Warehouse and discount beating mass merch
Walmart might dominate the volume of visitors to its brick-and-mortar locations relative to its top three competitors, but it is slowly losing its edge to Costco and Dollar General.
In 2019, Walmart attracted 10.2% of all shoppers to its physical stores; that figure dipped during the pandemic and remains at 9.7%.
Over the same period, Dollar General has grown from 2.2% to 3%, and Costco from 1.4% to 1.9%. Meanwhile, Target has declined by a fraction of a percentage point to 2.9%.
“Value retail is winning, but in more specialized forms: Dollar General (extreme value + convenience) and Costco (bulk value + loyalty) are driving the strongest traffic growth and rising visits per store, while Walmart’s broad ‘everyday value’ remains steady with slower growth,” the report noted. “Target, for its part, is lagging – likely a reflection of the broader bifurcation in retail which has left middle-market players caught between consumers trading down to value and those trading up to quality.”
CPG and retailers should focus on how value is delivered, rather than simply offering low prices at scale “whether through small packs vs. bulk, or quick trips vs. stock-up missions,” the report noted.
“Success increasingly depends on prioritizing these distinct value formats and investing in channels where store-level productivity is improving,” Placer.ai said.
Market segments up for grabs
Walmart dominates the overall shopper base, but a relentless battle continues for second place among the top four retailers.
That could be determined by demographics, due to the various segments of the grocery retail market controlled by Target, Dollar General and Costco.
The Mature and Retired Living segment of shoppers gravitate toward Dollar General, while families prefer Target and Costco, according to Placer.ai. “Contemporary Households” that encompass singles, married couples without children and non-family households prefer Target.
The Contemporary Household segment could pose the biggest opportunity for retailers and CPG companies, as these typically younger shoppers are less locked in on their shopping habits, the report noted.
“For CPG companies, this data highlights that channel strategy is really about building the right mix of retailers, since even large national players reach different types of consumers,” Placer.ai added.
Retail giants fight for dominance in private label
Retailers' battle for shoppers is also playing in the rapid growth of private label brands. Check out our coverage and get caught up on the latest trends.
- 5/22/2026 How connected packaging is closing the private label gap - As retailers look to close the gap with national brands with their private label portfolios, connected packaging is emerging as a powerful way to boost supply chain visibility, ensure product authenticity and turn the package itself into a competitive advantage.
- 5/4/2026 Grocers scale private label portfolios with protein, fiber claims - Private label product launches by US grocery chains continue at a steady clip in 2026, with the biggest retailers going all-in on store brand innovation that offers functional and health benefits.
- 4/8/026 Circana: Private label takes different paths in the US and Europe - Private-label brands continue growing, even as inflation cools and pressure from name brand food and beverage manufacturers intensifies, according to data analytics company Circana.
