Chocolate’s positioning as an “affordable luxury” has helped insulate sales amid the current period of prolonged economic pressure, but inflation-driven dollar gains are masking sustained declines in units and volume, potentially signaling a longer-term shift in consumer preferences toward non-chocolate candy and experiential formats.
For years, chocolate has dominated the confection market – making up 51.7% of sales worth $28.4 billion in 2025, according to all outlet sales data from Euromonitor. This is compared to non-chocolate candy, which captured 40.9% of sales worth $22.5 billion, and gum, which snagged just 7.4% of sales worth $4.1 billion in the same period.
Chocolate’s stronghold reflects a steady rise in dollar sales annually between 2020 and 2025 for a total increase of 25.5% or $4.8 billion in the period, according to Circana data.
The steady rise in sales is notable because it comes at time when prices across categories spiked to historic levels during the pandemic and again at slightly slower, but still cumulatively impactful levels in the years following the COVID-19 outbreak.
Consumers’ willingness to spend more on chocolate amid skyrocketing inflation underscores its historic position as an affordable luxury that consumers enjoy even if they couldn’t afford to eat at restaurants or travel as much they did before prices began to rise.
However, a closer look reveals declining units since 2021 to the tune of 12.4%, or 903 million units. In the same period, chocolate volume sales in pounds fell 11.4% or 291 million pounds, according to Circana data.
“That is not where we want to be,” Anne-Marie Roerink, principle and founder of 210 Analytics, told attendees at the Sweets & Snacks Expo in mid-May.
She acknowledged that the trends in chocolate sales, units and volume mirror those of confection more broadly. In 2025, confectionery sales in dollars rose 5.3% to $42.5 billion in 2025 over the previous year, while units fell 1.5% to 13.5 billion and volume fell 2.2% to 4.3 billion in pounds in the same period.
Confectionery trends: Balancing better-for-you trends and indulgence
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Why non-chocolate candy is growing
But what sets chocolate’s losses apart is the simultaneous steady rise in non-chocolate candy share of dollar sales from 32.6% in 2011 to a whopping 40.9% in 2025, according to Euromonitor data.
Likewise, Circana data shows a steady rise in dollar sales of non-chocolate candy similar to chocolate’s. Dollar sales of non-chocolate candy rose 41.2% or $4.1 billion to $14.1 billion in 2025 compared to 2021, according to Circana. But unlike chocolate, non-chocolate candy unit sales also rose – up 1.2% or 65 million units to 5.33 billion units in the same period. Non-chocolate candy volume rose 0.8% or 16 million pounds to 2.03 billion pounds in the same period.
“Why are people buying more candy, but not as much chocolate?” Roerink asked.
The answer is multifaceted, she said.
The first reason is chocolate has shouldered the brunt of inflation as volatile cocoa costs and supply shortages forced manufacturers to raise prices more sharply for chocolate than other confections.
The second reason, which may be more worrisome for chocolate manufacturers long-term, is younger Gen Z and Millennial shoppers are not engaging with the sector to the same extent as older Gen X and Boomer consumers.
“Gen z and Millennials over-index for gummy candy,” hard candies and freeze-dried candy, Roerink said. “In other words, they love experiences and the love non-chocolate, and that is why we are seeing it do a little bit better than chocolate now.”
Digging deeper into the data, Roerink noted sizable growth year-over-year growth in 2025 in novelty non-chocolate candy, which rose 17.4% or $2 million, albeit off a significantly smaller base than other categories. Likewise, sugar-free non-chocolate candy is up 3.8% or $11 million of a slightly larger but still small base.
Other winners that grew year-over-year in 2025 include seasonal candy, which increased 6.8% or $343 million, gummy candy (up 1.5% or $536 million) and hard candy (up 2% or $316 million), Roerink said.
Categories that lost sales volume in the period include specialty nut, down 5.6% or $53 million, chewy (down 5.3% or $616 million) and licorice (down 10.7% or $123 million), she said.
Drivers of non-chocolate candy include flavor innovation, including sour, which resonates more with Gen Z shoppers (24%) than Boomers (5%), Roerink said.
She added younger consumers also love mystery flavors.
“They like to be delighted” and surprised, she explained.
Innovation in texture also is driving sales of non-confection candy, Roerink said. She noted consumers are gravitating to “popping” items, which is easier to deliver with non-chocolate options.
A new avenue for growth for chocolate
Another reason for pressure on the chocolate category is because the ingredient or flavor profile is proliferating across categories, including chocolate covered pretzels, granola bars, and popcorn. It also is appearing in yogurt and breakfast bars.
For the vast majority of consumers (82%), these items are replacing actual chocolate in their diets, Roerink said.
This shift is just as much an opportunity as a threat, Roerink said.
“Maybe we need to start cross merchandising with those chocolate-covered everything items,” she said.
Another growth area for chocolate includes snack size products, which grew 10% or 267 million pounds in volume in 2025 over the previous year, said Roerink.
She posited the uptick in snack size chocolate speaks to consumer loyalty to the space and their unwillingness to walk away entirely – preferring to find options that fit into their financial and caloric budgets.
Taken together, Roerink said, this data suggests that chocolate will continue to benefit from its deep brand loyalty and role as an affordable indulgence, but future sales may depend less on traditional bar formats and more on smaller packs, cross-category usage and innovation that speaks to younger consumers’ preferences for novelty and experience.
