New restrictions on purchases made with food assistance benefits will be in place in 19 states by the end of 2026, and that could mean hundreds of millions in lost revenue for soda, candy and energy drink companies, according to a new report by data analytics company Numerator.
The new restrictions on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) spending vary from state to state, but Numerator estimates that the bans could trigger sales declines of $430 million for soda, $300 million for candy and $100 million for energy drinks.
That could also severely affect grocery and convenience stores, according to the report, “SNAP Spending in 2026: How OBBBA and Food Restrictions Are Changing Consumer Behavior.”
“This report confirms what convenience retailers have been saying all along: SNAP restrictions affect foot traffic and food access,” said Margaret Mannion, director of government relations at the National Association of Convenience Stores.
Government shutdown impact
Numerator noted that grocery and convenience stores already took a substantial revenue hit in the fall during the government shutdown in October and November when SNAP benefits were not disbursed consistently.
The four-week shutdown, the longest in US history, caused SNAP household spending to drop 10%, as SNAP recipients worried about access to food assistance.
Much of the spending declines took place in areas where spending could be paused, according to Numerator. Hardware sales dropped 18%, followed by fast food restaurant desserts at 10%, beverages and frozen foods 6% and snacks 5%.
C-stores were among the hardest hit retailers during the shutdown, with 7-Eleven recording the biggest revenue drop at 18%, followed by Amazon 17%, Shell 15%, Ahold Delhaize 14%, Circle K 13% and Wawa 13%.
Mannion said the data is “a reminder that SNAP participants rely on our industry for their everyday needs.”
Benefits reduced
Restrictions are being implemented in states where consumption of soft drinks, candy and energy drinks is already high, according to Numerator.
“In states where 2026 waivers are already active, soft drinks appeared in 23% of their 2025 SNAP trips, compared to 18% in non-waiver states. Candy showed a similar pattern (21% vs. 17%), as did energy drinks (10% vs. 8%),” Numerator said.
SNAP beneficiaries would likely trade down or substitute the restricted items, the report found. Nearly two-thirds of survey respondents (63%) said they also would likely use non-SNAP dollars to purchase soft drinks, if they are subjected to state bans.
Sixty percent would do the same with candy and 45% would do so with energy drinks, according to the report.
Healthier alternatives?
Recipients appear likely to change their dietary habits as a result of the bans, according to Numerator’s survey.
“If soda and energy drinks became ineligible, over 30% of SNAP consumers said they would possibly substitute with tea, juice and coffee,” the report revealed. “Candy showed a similar pattern, with fruit, ice cream, and fruit snacks also each cited by over 30% of SNAP users as potential replacements.”
