As consumers cut back on nonessentials to stretch their budgets farther in today’s economy, snack sales are taking a hit and brands must work harder to earn or keep a spot in shoppers’ carts.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the price of food at home climbed 29.4% between March 2020 and December 2025 – a staggering figure made worse by ongoing geopolitical tensions that have driven up the price of gas in 2026, prompting many consumers to shift spending from nonessential items to cover more expensive basic bills.
Among the items cut by many consumers are snacks, according to NielsenIQ, which found 15% of participants in a survey it conducted in January reported snacks and indulgent treats are no longer worth it at today’s prices. It also found that because of inflation 46% of survey participants are buying snacks less often – which is up 1 percentage point from the year before. Likewise, 38% are reducing impulse snack purchases and 33% are cutting back on less premium or indulgent brands – a 2 and 3 percentage point increase year-over-year, respectively.
This doesn’t mean the end is neigh for snacking. But it does mean the rules of snacking have fundamentally changed. Consumers aren’t simply asking whether a snack tastes good or fits their budget anymore. They’re asking whether it deserves a place in their cart at all.
In this episode of FoodNavigator-USA’s Soup-To-Nuts podcast, NIQ VP of Thought Leadership for Food & Beverage Insights Chris Costagli breaks down how years of disruption – beginning with supply chain challenges during the pandemic through the ongoing inflation and volatility related to tariffs, geopolitical tensions and benefit cuts are reshaping shoppers’ snacking priorities. He also shares strategies for brands to justify snack purchases through value, credible health benefits, emotional payoff and social or digital validation in an environment where consumers are less trusting and impulsive.
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How has snacking fundamentally changed?
According to Costagli, consumers initially began cutting back on snack purchases in response to inflation, and their frustration with companies’ corresponding shrinkflation, which made many feel like they were paying more for less. But, he argues, consumers continue to shift how they snack for a broader range of reasons.
“If you look at food and beverage average unit pricing going back to 2016 the compound annual growth rate is 50% through year to date, so the price of what we’re buying has certainly gotten more expensive. Then you take something like global conflict and you add that into the mix, you add higher gas prices into the mix, and all of these are things that are affecting the way that consumers are engaging the category,” he said.
One way this is shaking out is with consumers pulling back on spending.
For example, he said, “As a result of the gas price increase due to the global conflict, around 50% of consumers have made intentional cuts to snacks, indulgences, non-essential type products.”
In addition, he notes, the Make America Healthy Again movement is raising awareness about ingredients, nutrient density and the overall impact of diet on health.
“Then you layer on top of that technology,” including apps and artificial intelligence that claim to assess the healthfulness and safety of products, he said.
“All of these different things are happening at the same time, and it’s raising the stakes on what snacks are, what snacks have to deliver, and what the consumer ultimately is willing to spend on,” he added.
The new value equation
While higher prices may have prompted consumers to rethink snacks, Costagli says brands should not assume lowering prices is the answer.
Rather, they need to better communicate products’ value to justify the price. That value may be the health benefits it delivers, the joy it offers or something else, he said.
As an example, he pointed how premium chocolate continues to grow despite skyrocketing prices and that is because consumers perceive it as delivering the experience they expect and to have higher quality ingredients and a better nutritional profile than private label or the lowest priced chocolate.
The trust revolution
Higher prices may have originally prompted consumers to scrutinize snack purchases more closely, but Costagli says once they began more carefully comparing their needs to what snacks offered many shoppers found they didn’t trust brands’ marketing claims.
That epiphany prompted many to turn to third-party apps, social media creators and even retailers to help them evaluate products before they buy them.
He recalled a recent shopping trip in which he was looking for a protein bar to eat after working out. Based on the callouts on the front of package, he said he thought he found the perfect option. But when he used a third-party app to assess its healthfulness it got a score of seven out of 100 because it included several undesirable ingredients. The revelation prompted him to put the bar back on the shelf and seek something else.
Costagli says his experience reflects a broader shift among shoppers who increasingly use technology to double-check what brands promise.
He explained that consumer research by NIQ found in May 2025 about 17% of consumers said they used third-party apps to asses the quality of food. By January 2026, that shot up to 25%.
“Around 62% of the people who are using these apps today say they trust the app as much as they trust what a product’s label is saying. And 27% of those using the app say they actually trust the app more,” he said.
He added it doesn’t matter if the app is right or wrong, because consumers are changing their behavior based on it. So brands need to know what the apps say and adjust their strategy accordingly.
What matters more: health or indulgence?
While budget-conscious consumers may be more focused on health when picking out a snack, Costagli says there is still plenty of room for indulgent products to win – but, he says, they have a better chance if they also offer better-for-you benefits.
“There is still a huge role for indulgence when it comes to snacking,” he said, noting 33% of consumers are looking for balance between healthy and indulgent snacks, which means sometimes they may choose a candy bar and sometimes they have carrots.
However, he added, healthy snacks are growing faster in terms of dollars and units than snacking overall, while sales and units of indulgent snacks are declining.
“But, what is interesting is if you double-click on indulgent and you pull out indulgent snacks that are considered better-for-you … those are growing faster than healthy snacks,” he added.
Consumers contain multitudes and they think snacks should, too
At the end of the day, consumers still snack for many reasons that require different solutions, but ultimately when evaluating a product’s bang for their buck, shoppers want to know that the value justifies the price – regardless of if it is high or low.
“We have to be thinking of the reasons we are giving shoppers to choose us, and if we are not building the right justification around our products, we are not giving the shoppers what they need to justify the spend in their own minds,” Costagli said.
He added: “We focus too much on price, and we’ve really taken our eye off of value and justification. Ingredients are part of that, nutrition is part of that, protein is part of that, package sizing, portion control, flavors, channel all of that fits within justification. So I think, it’s focus less on price and focus more on the other side of the equation, because that’s the side that needs to get bolstered.”
